We Are All Just Guessing.

Nobody knows shit.

mp4

Posted in 1938 Media, Andrew Keen, Business, Fear, Gossip, Intuition, Loren Feldman, Mesh
6 comments

What are people saying?

  1. Shaun Rotman said on May 29th, 2007 at 8:24 pm

    A lot of your videos are jokes or fits of rage that I take as entertainment each day, however with this video you’ve said something that I think deserves more attention.

    The truth of Web 2.0 and many other successes in the world of technology is that their creators had faith in their projects and little of anything else.

    At first everyone thought Google was a joke and would disappear behind Yahoo, Facebook was for bored college students and would disappear behind MySpace, hell John C. Dvorak has been criticized for his initial rejection of the mouse when it was first released.

    I’m sure Zuckerberg couldn’t have predicted the success of Facebook over other social networks, Mullenweg the success of Wordpress over other blog engines. They were lucky. They designed their products/services well enough to catch on.

    So you’re right. “Nobody knows shit.”

    However the problem isn’t that. It’s that everybody thinks they do!

    Reply
  2. Vince Williams said on May 29th, 2007 at 9:51 pm

    I could use room service, right now.

    Well, all the speculation wouldn’t be any fun if someone did actually know shit about the future.

    The devil is in the details.

    If you’ll forgive me, a small bathtub means only one thing to me.

    I can’t feel sorry for you.;-)

    Reply
  3. flic said on May 29th, 2007 at 11:21 pm

    Yes, this is so true. And I wonder: you can’t predict people. But can you predict a network of people?

    Reply
  4. Loren Feldman said on May 29th, 2007 at 11:37 pm

    Crowds and networks always go to the simplest and lowest common denominator.

    Reply
  5. Davide Tarasconi said on June 1st, 2007 at 2:29 am

    I have an american professor who call it “ontological uncertainty”: he also wrote an interesting theory of innovation based on it.

    As you said, it’s basically about crowds, networks and complex decision making and foreseeing.

    Reply
  6. michael galpert said on June 1st, 2007 at 11:24 am

    IMHO best post ever Lauren.
    “we dont know shit”
    i think its because the web is inherently an emergent property and if we are part of it we cant know shit

    Reply

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