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We Are All Just Guessing.

May 29, 2007 – 6:11 pm

Nobody knows shit.

mp4

  1. 6 Responses to “We Are All Just Guessing.”

  2. A lot of your videos are jokes or fits of rage that I take as entertainment each day, however with this video you’ve said something that I think deserves more attention.

    The truth of Web 2.0 and many other successes in the world of technology is that their creators had faith in their projects and little of anything else.

    At first everyone thought Google was a joke and would disappear behind Yahoo, Facebook was for bored college students and would disappear behind MySpace, hell John C. Dvorak has been criticized for his initial rejection of the mouse when it was first released.

    I’m sure Zuckerberg couldn’t have predicted the success of Facebook over other social networks, Mullenweg the success of Wordpress over other blog engines. They were lucky. They designed their products/services well enough to catch on.

    So you’re right. “Nobody knows shit.”

    However the problem isn’t that. It’s that everybody thinks they do!

    By Shaun Rotman on May 29, 2007

  3. I could use room service, right now.

    Well, all the speculation wouldn’t be any fun if someone did actually know shit about the future.

    The devil is in the details.

    If you’ll forgive me, a small bathtub means only one thing to me.

    I can’t feel sorry for you.;-)

    By Vince Williams on May 29, 2007

  4. Yes, this is so true. And I wonder: you can’t predict people. But can you predict a network of people?

    By flic on May 29, 2007

  5. Crowds and networks always go to the simplest and lowest common denominator.

    By Loren Feldman on May 29, 2007

  6. I have an american professor who call it “ontological uncertainty”: he also wrote an interesting theory of innovation based on it.

    As you said, it’s basically about crowds, networks and complex decision making and foreseeing.

    By Davide Tarasconi on Jun 1, 2007

  7. IMHO best post ever Lauren.
    “we dont know shit”
    i think its because the web is inherently an emergent property and if we are part of it we cant know shit

    By michael galpert on Jun 1, 2007

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